Morning Market Review

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07/30/2021

EUR/USD

EUR shows a slight decrease against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after yesterday's active increase in the instrument which led to the renewal of local highs of July 6. Investors are focused on macroeconomic statistics from Europe and the United States, released yesterday. The development of "bullish" trend was facilitated by weak data on GDP dynamics from the United States, which showed an increase of only 6.5% YoY in Q2 2021 after an increase of 6.3% YoY in Q1 (revised from +6.4% YoY). Analysts' forecasts were much more optimistic and suggested an increase of 8.5% YoY. Another negative factor for USD was the statistics on jobless claims. During the week ended July 23, the number of initial jobless claims fell from 424K to 400K, which turned out to be worse than market expectations at the level of 380K. European data, in turn, supported EUR. In particular, investors were encouraged by the decline in the unemployment rate in Germany in July from 5.9% to 5.7%.

GBP/USD

GBP is trading with ambiguous dynamics against USD, consolidating after another "bullish" session the day before, which led to a renewal of monthly highs since June 24. The main reason for the strengthening of buying sentiment was the weak macroeconomic statistics from the US, which justifies the soft monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. During a recent speech, the Chair of the regulator Jerome Powell again did not name a specific timeframe for curtailing existing incentives, stressing that the American economy still needs support. Another positive factor for the instrument was the decrease in the incidence of coronavirus in the UK after the March high was recently renewed.

AUD/USD

AUD shows ambiguous trading dynamics against USD in the morning session, consolidating near 0.7400. The day before, AUD/USD showed moderate growth, receiving support from weak macroeconomic statistics from the US on the dynamics of GDP and the number of jobless claims. However, the growth of buying activity was limited, and by the close of the trading session on Thursday, USD managed to win back some of the lost positions. Moderate support for the instrument today is provided by macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Private Sector Credit in Australia in June showed an increase of 0.9% MoM after increasing by 0.4% MoM in May. Analysts had expected a slowdown in the index to +0.1% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator accelerated from +1.9% YoY to +3.1% YoY. Producer Price Index in Q2 2021 accelerated sharply from +0.4% QoQ to +0.7% QoQ, while market forecasts assumed its slowdown to +0.2% QoQ.

USD/JPY

USD is showing weak corrective gains against JPY in Asian trading, trying to recover from a noticeable decline the day before. Yesterday, USD received a strong impetus for new sales amid the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from the US on GDP dynamics and initial jobless claims. The data indicated a noticeable slowdown in the growth rate of the American economy, which, in turn, allows the US Federal Reserve to continue to maintain its ultra-soft monetary policy. Today, JPY is supported by optimistic Japanese macroeconomic data. The Unemployment Rate in June fell from 3% to 2.9%, which was better than the market's neutral forecast. Jobs / Applicants Ratio in June also increased significantly from 1.09 to 1.13 against the forecast of 1.1. In turn, Industrial Production in June rose by 6.2% MoM after falling by 6.5% MoM in May. Analysts expected growth of 5% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator accelerated from +21.1% YoY to +22.6% YoY.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are consolidating after a sharp rise the day before, due to the appearance of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from the US. The data reflected only a modest acceleration in GDP in Q2 2021, as well as a slower decline in the number of jobless claims. Such weak results only strengthened the belief that the US Federal Reserve will continue to adhere to the course of a soft monetary policy, expecting a qualitative improvement in the situation on the labor market. More stable growth in the United States so far is observed only in inflation indicators, but they are still of little concern to the regulator.

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